Poisson distribution is a method that works best for calculating statistics in sports where scoring is rare and happens in â¤ď¸ increments of one. This is why it is most widely used in association football, and occasionally in hockey, but not â¤ď¸ really utilised elsewhere â at least, not successfully.
Thatâs why, in this article, weâre going to focus on the former in â¤ď¸ particular, and why much of what weâll write will be applicable to football alone. With that said, letâs beginâŚ
What Is â¤ď¸ Poisson Distribution?
Poisson distribution is a method of calculating the most likely score in a sporting event such as football. Used â¤ď¸ by many experienced gamblers to help shape their strategies, it relies on the calculation of attack and defence strength to â¤ď¸ reach a final figure.
A mathematical concept, Poisson distribution works by converting mean averages into a probability. If we say, for â¤ď¸ example, that the football club weâre looking at scores an average of 1.7 goals in each of their games, the â¤ď¸ formula would give us the following probabilities:
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