If sports were predictable, no one would watch them. There’s nothing exciting about watching the team with the statistical advantage 🫰 win every time.
The appeal of sport is that anything could happen, whether it’s the underdog lifting the FA Cup or 🫰 the unseeded wildcard picking up the Australian Open.
This unpredictability is the enemy of the sports bettor because it means no 🫰 matter how carefully statistics and probability are studied, there’s always the chance of a blow-out.
For example, if the true probability 🫰 of a team with 2/1 odds and 33% implied probability was closer to a 50% chance of winning, this bet 🫰 could offer value.
Bettors with expert knowledge of a particular sport, a player, or a team can gain a small advantage 🫰 over the bookmaker. This is because there are some factors which aren’t quantifiable; bettors can use this expert knowledge to 🫰 interrogate the implied probability and try to find value bets.
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